This Market Indicator Gives Trump 86% Chance of Winning

Trump vs hillary

This week those of us living in the United States have the opportunity to vote for our next president. It is no secret that this year’s election is a little more bazaar than some elections past. As such, all predictions are probably worthless when it comes to fortune telling the outcome of Tuesday’s election.

 

Never-the-less, it is fun to speculate and throw around interesting statistics. So let’s look at a few, one of which gives Trump an 86% chance of winning!

 

Speculators like Hillary

According to the website predictit.org, Hillary has a 79% chance of winning the election on Tuesday. If you disagree with this and feel the urge to gamble, you can join the fun at www.predictit.org. A bet for Tump would yield nearly a 5:1 reward for your risk if Trump were to win.

 

usprez16

 

 

Real Clear Politics isn’t real clear

For the last couple of election cycles, Real Clear Politics has led the charge in aggregating and releasing polling data. Just a few weeks ago Hillary was clearly the leader of the pack. All she had to do was put the bow on top. But in the last two weeks Hillary has behaved like some of our favorite sports team… she has squandered her lead and may very well lose the election.

 

Today’s polls show Hillary with just a slight lead over Trump. More importantly, the electoral map reveals several paths to victory for “The Donald”. It would be fun to say we can predict the election before election day, but according to RCP, the election is slight edge Hillary, but it’s “too close to call”.

 

election-polls-rcp

 

The S&P 500 likes Trump

Trump Supporters could easily get discouraged by the press.  With people some predicting a victory is 79% likely, and polling data showing Hillary ahead (even if it is only a couple points), Trump supporters are grasping for some encouraging news.  So here it is.

 

If the S&P 500 has anything to say about it, Donald Trump will be the next president of the United States.

 

Going all the way back to 1928, in years where the S&P index is down YTD going into the election, the challenger beats the incumbent party in all but one year (1940). This accounts for an 80% chance that Trump will win on Tuesday.  Some have quoted this statistic at 86%, but I have not been able to find that data.

 

What we did find is the table below which reveals how well the S&P seems to have worked as an indicator. Whether or not this fun little statistical fact will hold any muster this year remains to be seen.

 

election-results-sp-500

 

Your world is infinitely better than most

Regardless of where you fall on the political scale here’s one thing that I know for sure:  your world is infinitely better than most. Despite modern technology, globalization, and massive awareness programs, the reality is nearly 780 million people around the world are suffering from starvation (see data at WorldHunger.org). Approximately 161 million of those hungry people are children 5 and under. Regardless of how difficult your life may seem right now, I expect everyone reading this right now is more blessed than these children.

 

This is one of the reasons TradeSmart University likes to give back. Right now we are supporting an initiative to help kids in Haiti.  For just $40/child, you can help us provide food and Christmas toys for a child. We have committed to helping this mission take care of an entire village of approximately 1200 children this year.

 

If you feel blessed by TradeSmart, or for any other reason, please be generous and help us with this campaign (cut off for donations is today at 4pm Central Time!!!!)  CLICK HERE to learn more about this project.

 

For those of us who live in a modern society, we often forget to stop and think how blessed we are. We are blessed to have food, shelter, and all of our needs taken care of. We are also blessed to have more than enough.  Enough that we can enjoy things like internet and television, and investing in the free market.

 

This election cycle, please do not take that freedom for granted. There is a very clear difference between the two candidates this year. Be responsible and go vote! You might be shocked to know how much your vote really counts.

 

 

 

 

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